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Education

7 Tips to Prevent Identity Theft

  1. Pick up new checks at the bank.
  2. Write "Photo ID required" on the back of your credit card.
  3. Use a variety of symbols, letters and numbers for passwords.
  4. Close all accounts for missing credit cards.
  5. Report lost or stolen checkbooks or debit/ATM cards immediately.
  6. Don't carry your Social Security card with you.
  7. Shred any trash that may contain personal information. 


Market Commentary

For the week of November 5th, 2021

ECONOMIC REVIEW

  • The ISM Manufacturing Index decreased in the month of October to 60.8, however, it fell less than economists’ expectations of 60.5.
  • The ISM Services Index increased to 66.7 in October, beating economists’ expectations of 62.
  • Nonfarm payrolls for the month of October increased by 531,000, which was higher than economists’ expectations of 450,000.


INSIGHT: After back-to-back lackluster reports in August and September, the labor market bounced back in October. This can be attributed to the first full month of hiring following the expiration of federal enhanced unemployment benefits, coupled with waning Delta variant cases. The leisure and hospitality industry which lagged significantly over the last few months staged a strong comeback, increasing by 164,000 whereas the previous month the sector only added 66,000. The unemployment rate continues to decrease, dropping to a pandemic era low of 4.6%. On the other hand, the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 61.6%. However, the participation rate among so-called prime age workers 25 to 54, ticked higher to 81.7%. Roughly 4.7 million fewer people have a job now than they did before the pandemic. The stagnant participation rate points to challenges with getting people back into jobs, due in part to increased retirements and parents leaving jobs for childcare purposes.

 

A LOOK FORWARD

  • The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the month of October will be announced on Tuesday, the expectation is for producer prices to rise by +0.6%. The year-over-year estimate calls for an increase of 8.6%.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of October will be announced on Wednesday, the estimate is an increase of +0.4%. The year-over-year estimate calls for an increase of 5.8%.
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be announced on Friday, for the month of October the expectation is for the index to increase to 72.3 from the previous month’s reading of 71.7.


INSIGHT: Inflation continues to be top of mind for investors; to combat increasing price pressures the Fed has announced its plan to reduce its bond purchasing program. Starting later in November, the Fed will reduce its monthly pace of asset purchases to $105 billion per month from the current rate of $120 per month. In particular, the Fed will reduce Treasury purchases to $70 billion per month from $80 billion, while reducing mortgage-backed securities purchases to $35 billion per month from $40 billion. The Fed expects to keep tapering Treasury securities by an additional $15 billion per month starting in December. At this pace, tapering would conclude in June of 2022. While the reduction in asset purchases should help to ease inflationary pressures, supply chain issues persist. These two factors may negate each other and therefore the Fed’s actions may not move the needle on lowering inflation all that much.

 

MARKET UPDATE Market Index Returns as of 11/5/211

WTD

QTD

YTD

1 YR

3 YR

5 YR

S&P 500

2.03%

9.17%

26.56%

35.79%

21.88%

19.86%

NASDAQ

3.08%

10.59%

24.59%

35.23%

30.84%

27.15%

Dow Jones Industrial Average

1.43%

7.44%

20.47%

30.40%

15.11%

17.87%

Russell Mid-Cap

1.98%

8.04%

24.43%

38.53%

19.92%

17.39%

Russell 2000 (Small Cap)

6.11%

10.62%

24.35%

48.27%

17.85%

17.45%

MSCI EAFE (International)

1.64%

4.14%

12.83%

26.67%

11.84%

10.50%

MSCI Emerging Markets

-0.04%

0.95%

-0.31%

10.61%

10.89%

10.00%

Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond

0.64%

0.61%

-0.95%

-0.52%

5.91%

3.19%

Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corp.

0.61%

0.44%

5.00%

8.88%

7.55%

6.71%

Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg

0.70%

0.45%

-3.63%

-1.77%

4.73%

2.45%


*The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright March 2021. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI# 3511980.1 

Market commentary brought to you by Debra R. Wolf and Foresight Investment Services

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